3M Open 2026: Scheffler Favored at TPC Twin Cities

There's something almost poetic about the way the PGA Tour calendar unfolds. One week you're walking the ancient linksland of Royal Troon, battling wind that seems to carry centuries of Scottish history. The next, you're standing on the manicured fairways of Minnesota, where the air is thick with Midwestern summer and the promise of a fresh start.

This week's 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities offers exactly that kind of reset—and nobody needs it more than Scottie Scheffler, who arrives as the overwhelming betting favorite at +270 after his T4 finish at the Open Championship left him still searching for that elusive major of 2026.

A Course Built for Scoring

TPC Twin Cities plays differently than almost anything on the Tour schedule. At just over 7,400 yards, this Arnold Palmer design in Blaine, Minnesota, isn't going to overpower anyone. What it demands instead is precision—the kind of surgical iron play that Scheffler has made his calling card.

The course weaves through wetlands and hardwood forests, with water coming into play on nearly half the holes. It's the kind of layout that rewards aggressive play while punishing carelessness, a balance that tends to separate the elite from the merely good.

For those of us who've walked these fairways during tournament week, there's a distinct energy here. The Minnesota galleries are knowledgeable and passionate, their enthusiasm undimmed by the state's relative distance from golf's traditional power centers. They understand they're watching something special when players of Scheffler's caliber commit to their event.

The Betting Landscape

The oddsmakers have spoken clearly: this is Scheffler's tournament to lose. His +270 odds represent the kind of gap we rarely see on Tour—defending champion Kurt Kitayama sits a distant second at +1900, with Maverick McNealy close behind at +2100.

But the most intriguing name on the board might be Ryan Fox at +2500. Fresh off his breakthrough major victory at Royal Troon, the New Zealander will be riding a wave of confidence that only a Claret Jug winner can understand. The question is whether he can channel that euphoria into another strong performance, or if the emotional hangover of winning his first major catches up with him.

Hideki Matsuyama, also at +2500, represents steady value. The former Masters champion has been quietly consistent this season, and TPC Twin Cities suits his methodical approach to course management.

Dark Horses Worth Watching

Further down the board, Jackson Koivun (+2800) and Tom Kim (+3300) offer intriguing storylines. Koivun's trajectory has been fascinating to watch, while Kim's ball-striking has shown flashes of brilliance that suggest a breakthrough is coming.

Gary Woodland at +4100 deserves attention too. The 2019 U.S. Open champion has been working his way back, and courses that reward precision over pure power can level the playing field for veterans who know how to manage their games.

What Scheffler Needs

The cold putter that plagued Scheffler at Royal Troon is the storyline everyone will be watching. His ball-striking remains otherworldly—arguably the best on the planet—but major championships are won and lost on the greens, and his flat stick has been uncharacteristically stubborn this season.

TPC Twin Cities' bentgrass greens are generally true and receptive, a far cry from the wind-battered putting surfaces of links golf. If there's a place for Scheffler to rediscover his putting stroke, it's here, in the relative calm of a Minnesota summer.

A victory would mark his second Tour win of the season—a perfectly respectable total for most players, but something of a disappointment for a talent of Scheffler's magnitude. The question isn't whether he'll contend; it's whether he can close.

The Takeaway

The 3M Open offers a fascinating study in contrasts this week. We have the world's best player seeking redemption, a new major champion testing his newfound status, and a defending champion trying to prove his 2025 victory was no fluke. TPC Twin Cities may not carry the historical weight of Royal Troon, but the stories being written here matter just as much to the players walking these fairways. Sometimes the most compelling golf happens in the quiet weeks between the majors—and this feels like one of those weeks.