2026 U.S. Open Preview: Contenders at Brutal Shinnecock Hills

There's a particular quality to the light at Shinnecock Hills in mid-June—something silvery and unforgiving that seems to expose every flaw in a golf swing. I've walked these fairways during three U.S. Opens now, and each time the course reveals itself as something between a masterpiece and a medieval torture device. As the 126th U.S. Open descends upon Southampton, the question isn't just who will win—it's who will survive.

A Course That Doesn't Negotiate

The statistics tell a brutal story. In the last four U.S. Opens contested at Shinnecock Hills—spanning from 1986 to 2018—exactly three players have finished under par. Three. Lee Trevino famously called the 156-yard par-3 11th hole "the shortest par 5 in golf," a quip that's aged remarkably well. And who could forget Phil Mickelson essentially playing hockey on the 13th green in 2018, desperately batting a moving ball before it rolled off the putting surface entirely?

This is not a venue that rewards aggression blindly. It demands precision, patience, and the kind of mental fortitude that separates major champions from everyone else.

The Two Men Who Transcend Tiers

Scottie Scheffler arrives at Shinnecock with history within reach. A U.S. Open victory would complete his career Grand Slam, and he turns 30 on Sunday—a birthday present for the ages, should he claim it. Since The Players Championship in March, Scheffler has posted four top-three finishes. His ball-striking is immaculate, his composure almost unsettling.

Rory McIlroy, meanwhile, is hunting his second U.S. Open trophy following his Masters triumph earlier this spring. Neither player has finished outside the top 20 since March. At a venue that punishes errant shots and rewards elite iron play, these two sit deservedly at the summit of every betting board.

The Ghost of 63

Tommy Fleetwood owns perhaps the most evocative memory of recent Shinnecock history—that mesmerizing final-round 63 in 2018, which fell just one shot shy of Brooks Koepka's winning total. Fleetwood has since broken through with his first PGA Tour victory, and he carries six top-10 finishes into this season. His iron play in wind remains among the finest on tour, and Shinnecock's coastal breezes could be his ally. Is this finally major number one?

The Contenders Who Could Steal the Show

The form lines entering Southampton are fascinating. Matt Fitzpatrick has been nothing short of brilliant—he already owns a U.S. Open title and seems to thrive under the psychological pressure that causes others to wilt. His recent victory alongside his brother at the Zurich (a team event, yes, but wins are wins) demonstrates his current sharpness.

Cameron Young has transformed from perennial almost-winner to legitimate weekly threat. His dominant performance at Bethpage Black during last fall's Ryder Cup—just 60 miles from Shinnecock—suggests he's found another gear in New York. Together, Fitzpatrick and Young are the front-runners for Player of the Year with five combined victories.

Wyndham Clark, another U.S. Open champion, endured a difficult spell following last year's locker-room altercation (we've all been there, Wyndham). But his Byron Nelson victory last month signaled a return to form. He may be the hottest player in the field entering the week.

What Shinnecock Demands

Walking the property Monday, I watched players stare at the tiny 11th green with expressions ranging from resignation to outright dread. This is a course that asks uncomfortable questions: Can you flight your irons in the wind? Can you accept bogey and move forward? Can you hold your nerve when the leaderboard turns red with over-par numbers?

The five Jacksons in the field (yes, five—the USGA clearly has a preferred surname) will learn these lessons alongside everyone else. First-time major winners have emerged at recent U.S. Opens, and this venue, with its capacity to scramble form lines, could certainly produce another.

The Takeaway

Shinnecock Hills doesn't crown the boldest champion—it crowns the most resilient one. Scheffler and McIlroy remain the rightful favorites, but this ancient links-style test has a way of humbling favorites and elevating the unexpected. Pack your patience alongside your binoculars. This week will be a war of attrition disguised as a golf tournament.